Review

  • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology
  • Volume 23(3); 2025
  • Article

Research Paper

Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology 2025;23(3):303-314. Published online: Sep, 30, 2025

Time-Dependent Safety Analysis of Spent Nuclear Fuel: An MCNPX–MATLAB Framework Linking Isotopic Predictions to Phase-Dominant Contributions in Decay Heat and Radioactivity

  • Essam Banoqitah1, Amir Alramady1,*, Marwan Alkhathami1, Faisal Alzahrani1, Sherif Nafee1, and Nader Mohamed2

    1King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah Saudi Arabia, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
    2Nuclear Research Center, Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority, Ahmed El-zomor St., Nasr-City, Cairo Governate - Egypt
Abstract

This study integrates MCNPX and MATLAB to analyze decay heat and radioactivity evolution in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) over 10¹⁰ seconds. MCNPX models burnup-dependent isotopic inventories, while MATLAB solves Bateman equations for decay analysis. Six phases, defined by dominant isotopes, dictate safety protocols. For decay heat, the short-term phase (140La, 239Np, 144Pr) requires active cooling; intermediate (144Pr, 106Rh, 95Nb, 95Zr) permits passive dry cask storage; and long-term (137Cs, 90Sr, 241Am, 241Pu) necessitates geological repositories. Radioactivity evolves through three phases: immediate with high gamma emitters (95Nb, 144Ce, 144Pr, 95Zr) demanding shielding; intermediate dominated by 137Cs, 241Pu, 90Sr, risking cask integrity; and long-term radiotoxicity from 137Cs, 90Sr, 241Am, 241Pu, requiring geological confinement. These temporal transitions highlight phase-specific risks: short-term strategies prioritize active cooling and shielding, while long-term solutions focus on multi-barrier isolation. The study provides a roadmap for optimizing cooling systems, shielding designs, and repository architectures to mitigate risks across the SNF lifecycle. By mapping isotopic contributions over time, the framework supports balanced technical-regulatory decisions, enhancing safety from reactor discharge to permanent disposal.

Keywords

Spent nuclear fuel, Decay heat, Fuel composition, Spent fuel radioactivity